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New Hampshire primary updates, Is the independent, all-knowing New Hampshire voter just a myth?.
The nation’s focus tonight is on New Hampshire, where Republican and Democratic challengers compete in the nation’s first primary for the 2016 presidential race.
The only state to have weighed in on Republican and Democratic nominees so far is Iowa last week, where citizens use a caucus method. In the Democratic caucus in that state Hillary Clinton edged out Bernie Sanders by two delegates. On the Republican side Ted Cruz won eight delegates, followed closely by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio at 7 delegates.
In New Hampshire, the latest polling favors different candidates: Donald Trump is up by 16 points in the Republican primary and Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points.
The state’s polls close mostly at 7 p.m. EST although some will close at 8 p.m. EST.
Four candidates dropped out of the race after the Iowa caucus: Republicans Rand Paul, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee plus Democrat Martin O’Malley.
The early caucus and primary states do not represent a large proportion of votes going into nominating conventions, but they do give candidates momentum going into Super Tuesday on March 1. On that day primaries and caucuses from 14 states and territories assign 1,017 Democratic delegates and 689 Republican delegates.
Still to go before Super Tuesday are one caucus in Nevada and one primary in South Carolina. Michigan will weigh in with its 148 Democratic delegates and 59 Republican delegates on March 8, the same day as Mississippi and Republican caucuses in Hawaii and Idaho.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ehks8FjuQdA
Days in NH (11/5/14-2/9/16)
Christie: 75
Kasich: 70
Graham: 67
Fiorina: 59
Bush: 55
Rubio: 37
Paul: 31
Cruz: 30
Trump: 28
Carson: 17— Adam Wollner (@AdamWollner) February 9, 2016
Here are five things to look out for:
1. Donald Trump chances of winning may be more clear. The brazen billionaire has led the Granite State’s polls for weeks, and he’s attracted droves of supporters at his rallies across the state. But the same could be said about Iowa, where he finished second to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. A second straight Trump loss in a state he’s favored to win would be devastating to his presidential bid. “I certainly hope so,” Trump said of his chances Tuesday. “I certainly have the biggest crowds.”
2. Hillary Clinton could cut into Bernie Sanders’ lead. It would come as little shock if the former secretary of state and current Democratic front-runner lost to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has had a double-digit lead for weeks. The bigger question Clinton faces may be whether she can invigorate a bloc of younger voters she’ll need to win her party’s nomination and regain an edge among women voters. Making gains among both those voter groups gives her a more realistic shot of narrowing the race.
3. Marco Rubio’s support could slip. The Florida senator’s strong third-place finish in Iowa helped him make the case that he’s the Republican who can unite the party, but his uneven performance in Saturday’s debate in Manchester raised fresh doubts among some New Hampshire residents about his experience. His chief adversaries are trying to leverage his miscues – he repeatedly relied on the same scripted talking points when challenged by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie – to say he isn’t ready for prime time.
4. Other candidates might shine. The primary could bring some clarity to the muddle of mainstream candidates near the bottom of the polls or leave it just as tangled as before. Christie, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are all battling each other, along with Rubio, for the establishment vote. Yet the longer they all stay in, the harder it is for Republicans who can’t stomach Cruz or Trump to coalesce around an alternative. How the three governors fare tonight could well reshape the race.
5. The snowfall’s impact the race. A snowstorm rumbled through New Hampshire on Monday and was expected to dump a few more inches across the state through Tuesday. Hard-bitten residents are used to driving in storms, and the storm cleared up by the afternoon. A UMass/7News poll released Monday showed that the storm’s impact could have potentially affect the race. Sanders had a lead over Clinton, but could have dropped by 1 percentage point due to the weather, while Trump’s advantage would jump by 2 points. Still, Trump seemed worried at a town hall meeting in Salem. “I may be standing there by myself,” he said. “Why does it have to snow now?”
Agencies/Canadajournal
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